Why Bernie Sanders may have to run again: A new poll

Bernie Sanders is still the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, according to a new Bloomberg Politics/USA Today poll.

But the Vermont senator and the Democratic National Committee are fighting to stop him from becoming the first woman to ever win the White House, and his campaign is trying to stop a new poll from showing the Vermont independent leading Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Here’s what you need to know about the latest polling.

Why is Sanders surging?

Despite his high negatives and his own struggles, Sanders is the odds on favorite to defeat Clinton in 2020.

He leads by 5 percentage points among likely voters (55 percent to 39 percent), according to the poll, conducted from July 7 to 13, with Clinton at 42 percent and Vice President Joe Biden at 12 percent.

Sanders leads Clinton by 10 points among voters under age 50 (42 percent to 41 percent), but his lead is slightly narrower among those 50 and older (20 points).

The poll also found Sanders leading by 15 points among women voters (45 percent to 40 percent) and Sanders by 10 among men (47 percent to 38 percent).

He leads among African Americans (48 percent to 43 percent) by 10, and among Hispanics (54 percent to 35 percent).

A third of registered voters said they would vote for Sanders, while a fourth said they were undecided.

The poll of 1,020 likely voters was conducted July 7-12 using a sample drawn from the probability-based GenForward probability model.

What is the latest Sanders poll?

The poll, which was conducted from June 15-18, showed Sanders leading Clinton by 4 percentage points (55-38 percent) among likely Democratic voters.

Sanders is leading Clinton among white women by 7 points (54-36 percent), while Clinton is leading among black women by 3 points (47-36) and among Latinos by 6 points (56-32 percent).

Sanders leads among men by 9 points (50-37 percent) while Clinton leads among women by 5 points (43-38).

The survey also found Clinton leading Sanders among African American voters by 5, 5 and 3 points, respectively, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Sanders has held steady on his support among young voters, with 54 percent of voters ages 18-29 saying they would support Sanders in 2020 compared with 43 percent of the same age group who said they support Clinton.

The survey found Sanders with support from 49 percent of 18-24-year-olds and 47 percent of those 65 and older.

Sanders also leads among voters with household incomes below $30,000 (52 percent to 45 percent), those who work full time (50 percent to 44 percent), and voters with no college degree (47 and 35 percent, respectively).

Where are the latest polls coming from?

The Bloomberg poll, released on June 16, surveyed a random sample of 2,001 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin, error and statistical significance of plus-minus 3.9 percentage points, according the website.

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (June 17) had Sanders with a 5-point lead among likely primary voters, 45 percent to 42 percent, and a 9-point edge among those older than 65 (55 and 38 percent) in the Democratic race.

The new poll, from June 22-26, showed Clinton with a 10-point advantage over Sanders among likely caucusgoers, 55 percent to 37 percent.

The CBS News/New York Times poll (July 7) had Clinton with 50 percent support among likely Republican caucusgoers.

The Washington Post/ABC News poll (Aug. 4) had her with a 14-point cushion among likely GOP caucusgoers over Sanders.

The Economist/YouGov poll (Sept. 3) had the Vermont Independent with a 15-point margin among likely independent caucusgoers (57 percent to 36 percent).

Bloomberg’s latest poll was conducted under a sample of 814 likely Democratic caucusgoers and has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and is weighted to match the U.S. population.

The Bloomberg Politics poll is conducted by Gravis Marketing and has overall margin, sampling error and weighted to reflect the U,S.

Census Bureau population.


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